Mental Models #1 - Information filtering
Learn 10 Mental Models for Filtering Information to make world-changing decisions.
“We are drowning in information, while starving for wisdom. The world henceforth will be run by synthesizers, people able to put together the right information at the right time, think critically about it, and make important choices wisely.”
E.O Wilson
Mental Models That Shape Our Thinking
Mental models are frameworks that we use to help us understand and make sense of the world around us. They are useful tools, but they can also lead us astray if we're not aware of them and how they can influence our thinking and decision-making.
As The Change Architect, information filtering should be one of your core skills as today due to sheer volume of information, filtering has become more important than ever. From CEOs of organizations to Presidents of countries, everyone’s job involves listening to countless advices and filtering them to make the ultimate decision.
So I am sharing the 10 most important mental models for filtering information so that you become expert at filtering any information you might come across with the ultimate goal of making effective and robust decisions.
1. Confirmation Bias
One mental model that can be particularly pernicious is confirmation bias, which is the tendency to seek out and give more weight to information that confirms our preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
Example:
For example, if you believe that a certain political candidate is the best choice for office, you might be more likely to pay attention to news stories that support your view and disregard those that don't.
Ways to counter it:
To counter confirmation bias, it's important to make an effort to seek out a diversity of viewpoints and consider evidence that goes against your beliefs. This can be difficult, as it can be uncomfortable to have our views challenged.
However, it's important to remember that being open to alternative perspectives can lead to a better understanding of a given issue and can ultimately lead to more informed decision-making.
Another way to counter confirmation bias is to practice critical thinking and to carefully evaluate the quality and reliability of the information you're considering. This means looking at the source of the information, considering any potential biases or agendas that might be at play, and examining the evidence being presented. By taking the time to carefully consider all of the available information, rather than simply accepting what confirms our preexisting beliefs, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
2. Anchoring Bias
Anchoring bias is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered when making decisions. This mental model can be particularly insidious because we may not even be aware that we're being influenced by the initial information.
Example:
For example, let's say you're trying to decide whether to buy a certain brand of car. If the first car dealership you visit quotes you a high price, you might anchor on that price and consider all subsequent quotes in relation to it, even if they are lower. As a result, you might be more likely to accept a quote that is still higher than it should be, simply because it's lower than the initial anchor.
Ways to counter it:
One way to counter anchoring bias is to actively seek out a range of options and to consider them all on their own merits, rather than in relation to the first one encountered. It can also be helpful to set specific criteria in advance for what you're looking for, so that you have a clear standard to use when evaluating different options.
Another way to counter anchoring bias is to be aware of it and to actively try to resist the influence of the initial anchor. This can be difficult, as our brains are wired to use shortcuts and heuristics to make decisions more efficiently. However, by being mindful of the potential for anchoring bias and making a conscious effort to consider all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
3. Framing Effect
The framing effect refers to the way in which the presentation of information (e.g., the wording of a question or the way options are framed) can influence decision-making. This mental model highlights the importance of being aware of how information is presented and to consider the potential biases that might be at play.
Example:
For example, let's say you're trying to decide whether to get a flu shot. If the question is framed as "Are you willing to take a small risk to protect yourself from the flu?", you might be more likely to get the shot. However, if the question is framed as "Are you willing to take a small risk to protect yourself from a rare side effect of the flu shot?", you might be less likely to get the shot. In both cases, the underlying information (the risk of getting the flu versus the risk of a rare side effect) is the same, but the way it's presented can have a significant impact on your decision.
Ways to counter it:
To counter the framing effect, it's important to be aware of it and to consider the potential biases that might be at play. This means looking beyond the surface level of the information being presented and evaluating it in a more critical and nuanced way.
It can also be helpful to seek out additional information and to get a more complete picture of the issue at hand. By taking the time to carefully consider all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
4. The Representative Heuristic
The representativeness heuristic is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a prototypical example or stereotype. This mental model can lead us astray because we may not consider all of the relevant information or we may make assumptions based on limited or biased data.
Example:
Let's say you see a man wearing a suit and carrying a briefcase. Based on the stereotype of what a business person looks like, you might assume that he works in an office. However, this assumption would be based on the representativeness heuristic and might not be accurate. The man in the suit could be an artist on his way to a gallery opening, or he could be a construction worker heading to a job site.
Ways to counter it:
To counter the representativeness heuristic, it's important to consider all of the relevant information and to be aware of any stereotypes or assumptions that might be influencing your thinking. This means looking beyond surface-level appearances and being open to the possibility that things might not be as they seem. It can also be helpful to seek out diverse perspectives and to consider alternative explanations for events or situations. By being more open-minded and considering all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
5. The Halo Effect
The halo effect is the tendency to form overall positive or negative impressions of someone based on a single trait. This mental model can be particularly pernicious because we may not even be aware that we're being influenced by it.
Example:
Imagine you are conducting research on the effectiveness of different teaching methods for students with learning disabilities. You have two potential participants for your study: Teacher A and Teacher B. Teacher A is highly organized and has a well-designed lesson plan, while Teacher B is disorganized and doesn't seem to have a clear plan for the lesson.
Based on the halo effect, you might be more likely to select Teacher A for your study, because their organization and planning skills give you a positive overall impression. However, this decision might not be based on all of the relevant information. It's possible that Teacher B is an excellent teacher who is able to effectively adapt to the needs of their students, despite their disorganization. By considering only a single trait (organization), you might overlook the fact that Teacher B could be an excellent candidate for your study.
Ways to counter it:
To counter the halo effect in this situation, it's important to consider all of the relevant information and to be open to the possibility that people may have both positive and negative qualities. This might involve asking additional questions or seeking out additional information about the potential participants in order to get a more well-rounded view of their abilities and skills. By being more open-minded and considering all of the relevant information, you can make more informed and accurate decisions about who to include in your research.
6. Mere Exposure Effect
The mere exposure effect is the tendency to prefer things simply because they are familiar. This mental model can influence our thinking and decision-making in a variety of ways, from the products we buy to the people we choose to associate with.
Example:
For example, let's say you're trying to decide which brand of cereal to buy at the grocery store. If you've eaten Brand A many times before and are familiar with it, you might be more likely to choose it over a new brand that you've never tried before, even if the new brand has similar or superior qualities.
Likewise, if you've only ever dated people who are similar to you in terms of background, interests, or personality, you might be more likely to continue dating people who fit this pattern, even if you are open to dating someone different.
Ways to counter it:
To counter the mere exposure effect, it's important to be aware of it and to make an effort to consider new or unfamiliar options. This might involve seeking out new products or experiences, or being open to meeting and getting to know people who are different from you. By being open to new and unfamiliar things, we can expand our horizons and potentially discover new preferences and interests.
It can also be helpful to carefully evaluate the familiar options and to consider whether they are truly the best choice, rather than simply selecting them because they are familiar. By taking the time to consider all of the relevant information and to be open to new options, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
7. Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that one could have accurately predicted it, even if there was no reasonable basis for doing so. This mental model is also known as the "I knew it all along" effect, as it can lead us to believe that we had a better understanding of the event than we actually did at the time.
Example:
For example, let's say you make a decision to invest in a certain stock. After the stock goes up in value, you might look back and think "I knew it was a good investment all along". However, this belief might be based on hindsight bias, as you might not have had any specific reason to believe that the stock would go up at the time you made the decision.
Similarly, if you hear about a natural disaster after it has occurred, you might think "I knew that area was prone to disasters" even if you had no specific knowledge of the area's risk before the event happened.
Ways to counter it:
To counter hindsight bias, it's important to be aware of it and to recognize that our ability to predict events is often limited by the information and knowledge we have at the time. It can also be helpful to consider alternative explanations for events and to be open to the possibility that there might be multiple valid ways of interpreting a given situation. By being more open-minded and considering all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate judgments about the past and the future.
8. Optimism Bias
Optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. This mental model can influence our thinking and decision-making in a variety of ways, from the risks we are willing to take to the choices we make about our health.
Example:
For example, let's say you're trying to decide whether to start your own business. You might be more optimistic about your chances of success and less concerned about the potential risks involved, simply because you are more inclined to focus on the positive potential outcomes. Similarly, you might be more likely to believe that you are unlikely to get sick or be involved in an accident, even if statistics show that these events are relatively common.
Ways to counter it:
To counter optimism bias, it's important to be aware of it and to make an effort to consider both positive and negative potential outcomes. This might involve seeking out additional information and being open to the possibility that things might not turn out as you hope.
It can also be helpful to consider alternative explanations for events and to be open to the possibility that there might be multiple valid ways of interpreting a given situation. By being more open-minded and considering all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
9. Availability Heuristic:
The availability heuristic is a mental model that refers to the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind. This mental model can influence our thinking and decision-making by causing us to overestimate the likelihood of events that are easy to recall or that we have heard about frequently.
Example:
For example, let's say you are trying to decide whether to take a vacation in a foreign country. If you have heard a lot about terrorist attacks in the news recently, you might be more likely to believe that travel to foreign countries is dangerous, even if statistics show that the overall risk is low. In this case, the availability heuristic might be causing you to overestimate the likelihood of a negative event (a terrorist attack) because it is something that is easily available in your memory and has received a lot of media attention.
Ways to counter it:
To counter the availability heuristic, it's important to be aware of it and to consider all of the relevant information rather than just relying on examples that are easily available in your memory. This might involve seeking out additional information and being open to the possibility that things might not be as they seem.
It can also be helpful to consider alternative explanations for events and to be open to the possibility that there might be multiple valid ways of interpreting a given situation. By being more open-minded and considering all of the relevant information, we can make more informed and accurate decisions.
10. Inattentional Blindness
Inattentional blindness is a mental model that refers to the tendency to overlook or fail to notice stimuli or information that is not the focus of our attention. This mental model can influence how we gather and process information by causing us to miss important details or perspectives.
Example:
For example, let's say you are driving on a busy highway and are focused on navigating the traffic. While you are paying attention to the cars around you, you might fail to notice a pedestrian standing on the side of the road, even if they are within your field of vision. In this case, inattentional blindness might be causing you to overlook the pedestrian because you are focused on other stimuli (the traffic).
Ways to counter it:
To counter inattentional blindness, it's important to be aware of it and to make a conscious effort to pay attention to all of the relevant stimuli and information. This might involve setting aside specific times to focus on a particular task or taking breaks to refocus and scan your environment for new or important information. By being more mindful and aware of our surroundings, we can be better equipped to notice and process all of the relevant information.